The Netherlands’ regulated gambling market is facing an unexpected crisis - its most valuable players are disappearing. Since the introduction of strict deposit limits in October 2024, high rollers have been migrating to unlicensed platforms, where the same rules don’t apply.

The Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) set out to protect players with default monthly deposit caps: €700 for over-25s and €300 for 18-24-year-olds. In some areas it seems to have worked with extreme losses dropping. Now 1.2% of accounts lose over €1,000 per month (down from 4%).

But the unintended consequence? Licensed operators saw revenue fall by 10% in H2 2024, while the KSA estimates 50% of total gambling spend has shifted to the black market.

Players can request higher limits but only after demonstrating that they can afford it, mostly in the form of submitting payslips, bills and other financial documents, which is where the system breaks down:

• Slow approvals: Days of waiting for documents to be checked mean players lose interest.
• Invasive requests: Many balk at sharing bank statements or payslips.
• Abandoned applications: A significant portion simply give up and seek offshore sites.

The result? A surge in searches for 'casino without limits' from 172,576 a month to over a million in six months.

The KSA admits the limits may have pushed high rollers underground. VNLOK (The Dutch gambling provider trade body) chair Helma Lodders says: “The fact that the turnover of the illegal market is growing so fast means that players who wager a lot of money are more likely to operate outside the regulated offering…This shifts the problem instead of solving it”

Could frictionless, document-free affordability checks keep players in the legal market without compromising safety? For now, the exodus continues with a great chance that the black market is winning.